FUTPES - CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERIES

Context

Climate change is altering the distribution of many marine species. Rising ocean temperatures are driving many populations towards higher latitudes, with consequences for both ecosystem functioning and fisheries and their management systems.

In the Bay of Biscay, sea surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.22 °C per decade since the 1980s. These changes may affect the availability of traditionally exploited species while, at the same time, favouring the arrival or establishment of species from more southerly regions.

Anticipating which commercially relevant species could become established in the Bay of Biscay is key to improving the fishing sector’s capacity to adapt. Against this backdrop, the project will analyse fish, cephalopods and crustaceans with potential fisheries value that could expand their distribution into this area by 2040, combining scientific information, historical data, expert knowledge and climate scenarios.

Objectives

The overall objective of the project is to identify and prioritise marine species with the potential to become emerging fisheries resources in the Bay of Biscay under climate change scenarios, providing a scientific basis for anticipating future opportunities for the fishing sector.

• Characterise biogeographical changes associated with ocean warming by analysing species distribution, tropicalisation processes and the arrival of warm-affinity species in the north-east Atlantic.
• Compile an inventory of species exploited in more southerly regions, including Portugal, the Gulf of Cádiz, Morocco and Mauritania, in order to identify resources that are currently absent or only sparsely represented in the Bay of Biscay.
• Apply ecological, fisheries and conservation criteria to select candidate species, taking into account their commercial interest, conservation status, non-invasive nature and evidence of climate-driven range expansion.
• Prioritise candidate species using a multi-criteria approach, integrating information on exploited biomass, geographical distribution and their contribution to tropicalisation processes observed across the regions analysed.
• Generate a list of priority species for future prospective analyses, providing a basis for modelling their current and future distribution (to 2040) and for assessing new fishing opportunities under climate scenarios.

Expected results

The project will produce an up-to-date state of the art on species with the potential to appear or become established in the Bay of Biscay as a result of changing environmental conditions.

Based on the analysis of historical and current data, candidate species with the potential to expand into the Bay of Biscay will be identified, and the biological and environmental information required to assess their future distribution under ocean warming scenarios up to 2040 will be compiled.

The selection of species will also be validated against scientific knowledge and the professional experience of the fishing sector.

Expected impact

The project will help to strengthen the ability of the fishing sector and fisheries management bodies to anticipate changes in the distribution of marine resources.

Identifying in advance which species may become more abundant in the Bay of Biscay will provide a scientific basis for assessing new fishing opportunities and potential adaptation needs.

This knowledge will support more flexible and resilient fisheries management in the face of climate change, taking into account not only the potential effects on currently exploited species but also the emergence of new resources of potential interest to the sector.

Funding