Climate resilience assessment for marine species

Problem addressed

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution, abundance and productivity of commercially important marine species in the coming years. Without forward-looking assessments of these impacts, it is difficult to anticipate risks and adapt management measures in sufficient time.

What we do and how we do it

At AZTI, we have developed a forward-looking climate assessment approach designed to support strategic planning across the sector:

• Climate vulnerability assessments combining biological, ecological, physiological and oceanographic data.
• Predictive models that simulate how species may respond to different emissions scenarios and environmental stressors.
• Predictive models of genetic adaptation to estimate the ability of exploited species to respond to future environmental change.
• Genetic resilience analyses to assess the adaptive capacity of exploited species.
• Future risk mapping and dynamic exposure maps by species or fishing area.
• Recommendations for adaptation measures to inform management policies, fisheries planning and aquaculture development.

Key benefits

• Anticipation of future climate impacts on key species and their habitats.
• Tools to support the development of medium- and long-term adaptation strategies for fisheries and aquaculture.
• Prioritisation of actions according to the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of each species.
• Support for decision-making aligned with regulatory frameworks such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD), Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and European Green Deal.
• A scientific basis for proactive conservation policies and reducing ecosystem risks.