For decades, we’ve treated energy as the main axis of global geopolitics—oil, gas, strategic minerals. Yet another force is gaining comparable—and in some cases even greater—weight, and it doesn’t always make the headlines: food.
The 21st century won’t only be defined by the energy transition. It will also be the century of food security.
And this isn’t just about production. It’s about control over raw materials, water, agricultural technology, fertilisers, proteins, and global logistics chains.
Food has become a strategic asset.
Structural dependence and new national strategies
Some countries rely heavily on imports to feed their populations. China is a telling example. Despite being one of the world’s largest producers of meat—especially pork and poultry—its agricultural capacity is constrained by limited arable land and water resources.
To sustain its consumption model, China imports vast volumes of soybeans, grains, and animal protein. This dependence has driven strategies to diversify suppliers, invest in third countries, and acquire companies across the agri-food sector.
This is not simply corporate expansion. It is about reducing structural vulnerabilities.
Another major trend is corporate concentration in seeds, fertilisers, and agrochemicals. A small number of large companies control a significant share of the global market for these critical inputs.
This can improve efficiency in some areas, but it also increases farmers’ and countries’ technological dependence. Access to improved seeds or specific fertilisers is not neutral—economically or strategically. As a result, market structure directly shapes the competitiveness of national production systems.
The impact of conflicts and disruptions
The war in Ukraine exposed just how deeply food is embedded in global geopolitical dynamics. Ukraine was a key supplier of grains and sunflower oil to international markets and, when its exports were partially disrupted, both prices and availability across multiple markets were affected sharply—and very quickly.
A similar vulnerability exists with fertilisers. Much of global production is concentrated in a small number of countries. Supply disruptions don’t just affect one region; they reverberate through global agricultural productivity. This is yet another sign of how tightly interdependent food chains are—and how much risk that interdependence carries.
The ocean as a finite resource
Food geopolitics isn’t limited to agriculture. Marine resources are part of the equation too, as a significant share of the world’s fish stocks are being exploited at or above maximum sustainable yield. This means there is limited room to increase catches.
Control over fishing grounds, international fisheries agreements, and the development of advanced aquaculture are all pieces on the geopolitical chessboard—making the blue economy a strategic matter.
Europe: position and challenges
In Europe, the prevailing perception is of a stable food system, with high levels of supply and relatively affordable prices. Yet there are external dependencies for certain inputs—especially plant protein for animal feed and fertilisers.
The food industry is the EU’s largest manufacturing sector and a cornerstone of rural economies. That is why incorporating the geopolitical dimension into business strategy is essential to strengthen resilience and competitiveness.
To mitigate structural risks, Europe needs supplier diversification and greater productive efficiency—and technological innovation is the most effective path to achieve both.
Competitiveness in an interdependent world
Understanding the geopolitical dimension of food doesn’t mean dramatising the situation. It means bringing structural analysis into decision-making.
Food geopolitics points to a world that is increasingly interconnected and highly sensitive to disruption. Future competitiveness will depend not only on companies’ internal efficiency, but also on their ability to anticipate supply-chain risks, adapt to regulatory change, and operate in complex global markets.
Food will remain a fundamental pillar of economic and social stability. The difference will be how well we manage its growing complexity.
