Cantabrian fleets rely heavily on migratory tuna species, whose distribution and body size are changing as a result of ocean warming. Predictive models were needed to anticipate these changes and adapt fisheries management accordingly.
AZTI developed global and regional models for 22 tuna and large pelagic stocks, analysing:
Future distribution under IPCC climate scenarios.
Changes in size and productivity.
Implications for Spanish fishing fleets.
The developed models reveal the following key findings:
Poleward shifts in 20 out of 22 stocks by 2100.
A global reduction of 15% in body size by 2050.
An advance of 2.3 days per decade in the arrival of juvenile albacore (bonito) to the Cantabrian Sea.
Significant implications for catches of bluefin tuna, bigeye tuna, and swordfish.