Time series analysis and projection of marine climate scenarios

Problem addressed

Climate change is progressively transforming marine and coastal environmental conditions (temperature, wave climate, sea level, circulation, ocean acidification, etc.). These changes affect biodiversity, the safety of infrastructure, the operational capacity of sectors such as fisheries and aquaculture, and urban and port planning. Without reliable analyses of past trends and projections tailored to the local context, it is not possible to anticipate risks or design effective adaptation strategies.

What we do and how we do it

At AZTI, we provide an integrated service that combines observation, statistical analysis and climate modelling:

• Time series analysis of key variables: sea surface temperature, mean sea level, wave climate, wind, acidification, oxygenation, and coastline erosion.
• Integration of data from multiple sources, including in situ observations, satellites, buoys, reanalysis datasets and operational oceanography systems.
• Assessment of relevant regional climate anomalies (Bay of Biscay and other areas of interest).
• Downscaled modelling of marine climate scenarios, combining high-resolution physical and biogeochemical models with global scenarios (RCP, SSP).
• Impact and risk assessment for habitats, species, fishery resources, coastal zones, port infrastructure and productive sectors.
• Development of climate indicators and clear visualisations to support use by technicians, planners and public authorities.
• Knowledge transfer in decision-ready formats, aligned with European regulations and regional adaptation plans.

Key benefits

• Robust and up-to-date knowledge on the evolution and projection of marine and coastal climate conditions.
• Reduced uncertainty in sectoral planning in the face of climate change.
• Technical support for the design of resilient and sustainable infrastructure.
• A strategic tool for spatial planning and marine conservation.
• Alignment with international frameworks such as the European Green Deal, the EU Adaptation Strategy and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.