Genetic adaptation to climate change

Problem addressed

Climate change is rapidly altering environmental conditions, putting the survival of many species at risk. Not all populations have the same capacity to adapt, and traditional ecological assessment methods are unable to detect genetic differences that are critical for understanding species’ adaptive potential. Gaining insight into how adaptive genetic variation differs among populations, and assessing the risk of maladaptation under future scenarios, is essential for the effective management of biodiversity and natural resources.

What we do and how we do it

AZTI provides an end-to-end service for analysing genetic adaptation and assessing genetic offset, including:

• Definition of the management objective (assessing resilience, prioritising source populations, or planning restoration or translocation actions).
• Design of genetic and environmental sampling strategies tailored to target species, habitats, and relevant climate gradients.
• Laboratory-based genomic analyses, including DNA extraction, high-throughput genotyping, and/or massive sequencing (RADseq, WGS, GBS, etc.).
• Advanced bioinformatic and statistical analyses to:
  • Detect genomic regions under natural selection.
  • Identify adaptive variants associated with current environmental factors (climate, salinity, temperature, oxygen, etc.).
  • Estimate genetic offset by predicting expected genetic mismatches under future climate scenarios.
  • Assess genetic diversity and population structure within and among populations.
  • Analyse hybridisation and introgression, evaluating their role in adaptation or loss of diversity.
• Integration with environmental and future climate data (CMIP models, IPCC scenarios).
• Applied interpretation for management, translating genomic results into clear indicators and actionable recommendations for managers and conservation decision-makers.

Key benefits

• Enables anticipation of the risk of genetic mismatch under climate change (genetic offset).
• Identifies more resilient or more vulnerable populations, helping to prioritise conservation actions.
• Informs genetically sustainable translocation and restoration strategies.
• Detects hybridisation and introgression processes with adaptive implications.
• Provides an evolutionary and predictive perspective that complements traditional ecological approaches.
• Delivers valuable input for conservation planning, fisheries management, sustainable aquaculture, and habitat restoration.
• Method aligned with European strategies on biodiversity, climate adaptation, and genetic conservation (Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, Green Deal).
• Proven expertise: AZTI combines genetic, ecological, and computational knowledge to deliver scientifically robust, management-oriented results.