(Saturday, November 18, 2017)
Setting the effects of climate change on the fisheries of Spanish fleets is the aim of Cliremar project (Climate scenarios of the vulnerable marine resources of Spain), which will be developed by AZTI until June 2018. The work will be carried out by means of the future simulation of four relevant species such as eel, bluefin tuna, Atlantic bigeye tuna and Cantabrian anchovy.
Global ocean warming is causing displacements towards the north of the fish, deep migrations and advancement of its phenology. Currently, exploited species assessment and management do not take into account the effects of climate change. The incorporation of these effects can be key for the viability of certain species that are in a delicate situation and that are of great interest for the Spanish fleet.
Within Cliremar project, ecological niche models of the stocks and their projection will be developed under climatic scenarios that will make it possible to set the magnitude of the impact, the possible negative effects of climate change will be incorporated in the stock assessment, and management strategies as well as those of adaptation of the sector will be defined.
Among the specific aims of the project, which has the support of the Biodiversity Foundation of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Food and the Environment; and the Basque Government, those highlighted are the current effect assessment and the vulnerability of the sea warming in the four species, reduction of uncertainty in the knowledge of potential impacts of future climate change on the distribution and abundance of species, and the generation and transfer of proposals for sector adaptation and management of marine resources to minimize the impacts of climate change.
Finally, the results of the project and the impacts of climate change in the fisheries of the species will be released to the fishing sector, the scientific community and society in general.
The work plan of the project includes the analysis of trends in spatio-temporal series of the abundance of target species (eel, bluefin tuna, bigeye tuna and Cantabrian anchovy) and ocean-climatological factors.
Likewise, it is planned to carry out a survey among the fishermen of the fleets of the target species on their perception of the changes experienced by the species and the marine environment as well as the possible relationship of these changes with global warming.
The development of ecological niche models for the target species will be developed in relation to ocean-climatic factors (sea temperature at different depths, stratification, currents, salinity, oxygen, pH, primary production), through generalized additive models (GAM).
It is also foreseen the extrapolation of the models to future climate change scenarios of the 5th IPCC report (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, time horizons: 2050-2100) and analysis of expected changes in the distribution and phenology of the species.
One the tasks that will be developed is the analysis of the vulnerability of the resources, proposals for the incorporation of climate change to the evaluation and fisheries management and adaptation for the sector.